A Comprehensive Study of Andy's Edit in Survivor 47
This is my fifth attempt at a winner pick - my previous ones were Austin, Drew, Hunter and Charlie, but with those ones I think I was still so new to Edgic that I was getting hung up on the little details, so here's what I did wrong for each of them:
- Austin (45) - falsely equating an advantage heavy edit to a winner's edit (he's doing so well strategically, therefore he must win), discounted the importance of social game and consistent personal content
- Drew (45) - equated number of confessionals, strategic prowess ("best game") and being the narrator with being the winner (he's the one narrating the most therefore he must win), discounted the importance of social connections and in episode personal content, ignored that his backstory package was cut
- Hunter (46) - got blinded by appearances (he just LOOKS like a winner, therefore he must be), discounted his lack of strategic game, ignored how big of a challenge threat he was, also ignored how little he fit the themes of the season
- Charlie (46) - equated a great strategic game and great narration with a winning game, ignored his lack of personal content or emotional story, ignored how closely linked to Maria he was and how hard that will make it for him to claim his moves
Now I think I'm more ready to take on a real, educated guess, and this is a comprehensive collection of all the evidence I could find to support an Andy win. Starting from the very beginning...
Opening Credits
One of the biggest winner hints that people focused on from the title credits was the woman with the torch right before Sierra, but now that Sierra's gone, I think we can safely ignore that as a hint. Similarily to the opening credits of 45, Gata is the last tribe shown to us, and Andy is the last person we see before the end of it, like Dee in 45. The first shot is of him lying in the sand (probably representing his silly, pathetic persona) but the second is a full on, proud beaming smile. (Although Sam has a really good opening shot, too.)
THE PRE-MERGE
Episode 1
Sigh. Okay. Episode 1 wasn't great for Andy, I get it, but let's look at it a little closer. It's established from the get-go that this season will be all about community and FINDING your community. Andy is introduced to us as somebody who's often been left out of community - he only had four friends in high school but has built a strong support system for himself as an adult.
His first confessional comes relatively soon in the premiere (a good sign for winners), talking about how he approaches this game as a numbers game - complex math equation ensues - and how his main goal is to have two close allies so it will be harder to get voted out. But things start to go a little south when he accidentally isolates himself by spending too much one on one time with Jon, prompting Sam, Sierra, Anika and Rachel to ally together and leave him out. (This also when we get a confessional from Rachel where she says he's too eager to meet people and make connections - an odd comment considering this is a social game).
Now imagine, if you will, being entirely severed from your support system, unable to talk to your girlfriend or friends, left alone in a jungle surrounded by cutthroat strangers, and now you're starting to suspect that you're on the bottom of your tribe on Day 1. Andy breaks down. He seeks comfort in Rachel, but she's too preoccupied in the game to want to help him. Andy is someone seeking community and connection (he literally comes out as bi on national television just to make a bond with Jon), but Rachel is someone all about the strategic game. However, in a season with a community theme, this isn't a good look for Rachel. (This could be setting up her downfall, choosing strategy & advantages over social bonds.)The edit clearly wants us to sympathize with Andy and his struggle in this episode, but some moments are too cringe even for the edit to disguise. He melts down in front of everyone (a moment even I can't bring myself to watch), but Jeff encourages him to keep playing and not give up until his torch is snuffed. This is echoed by Andy in a confessional as inspirational music plays. "I'm not going to concede" he says.
Episode 2
Not a lot here, but things are still a bit bleak. The Gata tribe try to make Andy feel comfortable, who somehow doesn't notice how fake it is.
Episode 3
Andy seems to be finding his footing now. The Gata community hits a rough patch, with Sam and Anika butting heads over...a clothesline? Either way, Andy is pleased by this and informs us that he's been quietly observing everything going on to use to his advantage. This is our first major sign that Andy is much smarter than his tribe (or the audience) realizes.
The conflict between Sam and Anika means that Andy may actually have some life on the Gata tribe.
He continues to forge connections with his tribemates by offering Sierra his Shot in the Dark, which gains her trust because this was exactly what she needed to trust him. He's now part of the majority with Sam and Sierra, and the edit doesn't do a whole lot of undermining. This is a positive episode for our guy.
Episode 4
Not a lot of Gata in this episode, with the edit's focus shifting to Genevieve's mastermind edit on the Lavo tribe, but what we do get of Gata is the usually clowning on Andy fare. Back to our regularly scheduled programming lol his tribemates criticize him for being sloppy, and he keeps losing his SITD. Although, I do want to note that the vibes of this George Constanza montage reminds me of the montage they did for Kenzie in 46, where they edited all the times she said "Whatcha guys talking about?" early in the pre-merge, purely to make fun of her. The edit dunks on winners more often than you'd think!
But either way, bro is a hot mess this episode. However, he gets a bit more positive tone when he's sent on the journey and plays up an act of being on the bottom to disguise the fact that he's in the majority with Sam and Sierra. This act also successfully prevents him from losing his vote (Teeny does instead). Again, very smart. He's playing the game, albeit in an odd way, but still playing.
Episode 5
This episode is very Gata-focused. Andy is on the losing team in the reward challenge, and doesn't get to go to Survivor Social Hour. Sam and Rachel do, but while they're gone, we get a rare survival scene of him, Sierra and Anika attempting unsuccessfully to catch some fish, with Andy narrating how much they're starving. This scene does clown on Andy a little, but it seems to be clowning on all three of them pretty equally, not just him. That's not how you catch fish, guys! Ugh, where's Ozzy when you need him.
However, the immunity challenge does dunk on Andy pretty hard, in yet another one of his terrible challenge outings, so bad that there's literally no way to edit it in any positive way - he saws a rope backwards. There's no other way to portray that other than as a moment of true clownery. Thanks to Andy's backwards sawing, Gata lose the challenge by mere seconds, and now both Anika and Andy are on the chopping block.
BUT. Once again, the edit switches from dunking on Andy to showing us his strategic abilities. We get a crazy sequence of Andy making Anika feel comfortable to not play her SITD, by setting up Rachel and Anika bringing him into a fake plan, so they'd feel in control of the vote and not suspect that he, Sam and Sierra were going to vote against them. Also, Andy is so confident that the Anika vote will go his way because he's already put in the social legwork to get Sam and Sierra to trust him. So much so, that he's not too worried that he'll be the one voted out (even though he logically should've been because Sam/Sierra could've easily swung the other way). His hard work pays off, and Anika is voted out in a shocking blindside.
THE MERGE
Episode 6
"Feel the FOMO"! Andy's first episode title, and it's the merge. The tribes all meet up on the Tuku beach, and an advantage is announced to be hidden on the beach. It's a mad scramble...for about one minute, then everyone returns to socializing and building bonds (community theme). We get many reactions to this, Sol is frustrated, wondering why no one is looking for the advantage ("this is Survivor!") but Andy has a really interesting confessional. He says:
"Of course it's so important to have an advantage in that critical challenge, but you know what we want to do right now? We want to meet each other. We want to get to know each other, we don't want to be running around sowing paranoia right now."
Once again, Andy is established as someone who cares about bonding with people more than advantages. That doesn't mean he isn't playing a strategic game, but he wants to get to know people while he does it - a winning mentality to have, methinks. After this, Andy is shown yapping with Sol and Tiyana about Rome, who has been stirring trouble around camp.
During tribal, when asked about blindsides, Andy confesses in front of 13 people that blindsiding Anika was fun as hell and her shock meant it was a job well done.
This stunned me, because the fact that he was able to say that in front of 13 people and not be considered a massive threat is wild. Everyone just laughs and Rome says "Oh my God, that's savage", but that's it. No blowback. I think it just shows how much the merge tribe are underestimating Andy (oh look, our third and final theme), so much so that he can announce that he blindsided somebody and no one will take it seriously. This can either spell disaster for him or be a blessing in disguise. On one hand, final tribal will be a lot harder because he'll need to convince them to stop underestimating him, but on the other hand, it allows him freedom to make even more moves when no one feels the need to keep an eye on him.
The merge tribe comes together in a near unanimous vote on Rome, but Andy is shocked when he gets a couple of votes, thanks to Gata reluctantly(?) offering him up as a backup plan at the merge feast. Yikes.
Episode 7
After tribal, Sol explains to a pissed off Andy why he voted for him, and to gain his trust back, reveals that it was Sam who threw his name out as a backup. This throws Andy for a loop, who thought he could trust Sam and Sierra because of all the work he did on Gata. He says he wasn't shocked or surprised by their betrayal, but rather woken up. He realizes he needs real allies that he can count on, and instantly pitches an alliance to Sol, who's more than willing to join forces with him. His concluding confessional goes so hard -
If I'm going to survive the second half of this game, I need to flip a switch. I need to take control and have authorship over how the rest of this game is going to go for me, and right now, that means I should just gun for my Gata tribemates, because if they're gonna come for me, I need to get them first.
Damn! After the credits, we follow up on Andy again, this time with a flashback sequence (who else got a flashback sequence? Dee in 45.) He stews over the Gata betrayal, and talks about how he realizes that he's an expendable third wheel to Sam and Sierra (showing self awareness on his position in the game, unlike your typical zero vote finalist). He bonds with Genevieve, who sees him as someone she can seriously work with. Here we finally get some positive SPV on him from someone outside of Gata. She says:
I'm in the market for a new ally, and top of my list is Andy. [...] After the first immunity challenge, Andy had, what I can only describe, as a moment of true, raw, vulnerable panic. So, I really felt for him in that moment, and he's still here, I think probably because people were using him to further their own agendas, but now he has an agenda - and I have an agenda, and if we can work together, we can take back a little bit more power at this stage in the game.
She isn't undermining him with this confessional, rather she is openly stating that she sees him as a legit player in the game that she can work with long-term. They both see each other as strategic opportunities to further themselves in the game. This scene is extremely positive, and potentially sets up the rest of the season quite nicely.
Later in the episode, there's a twist on a split tribal, with only one group voting someone out and the other winning immunity for everyone in their team. Andy is on the winning team, makes the jury, and gets to go have a nice lunch with potato salad (Teeny has been summoned) and some nice looking ribs. While at the lunch, Andy pokes around for an advantage (as any normal player would), but is caught by Sierra, who takes this as an opportunity to crap on him again in a confessional, but since he's already flipped on her at this point, her confessional comes across as her being out of the loop rather than right.
Brief note during tribal, after Rachel dips with the Safety Without Power, Andy and Sam are shown chatting on the bench, speculating on who's going to get voted out between Tiyana and Gabe. I found that interesting that the edit highlighted their specific thoughts on the situation over anyone else's.
THE EARLY POST-MERGE (Final 11-9)
Episode 8
Oh, goodness - "He's All That". Our second Andy episode title, and this one is huge for him. There's so much to unpack, I don't even know where to start. I spent most of this episode screeching and freaking out, because I was literally watching a winner's edit (albeit, a quite strange one) unfold in front of my eyes and I didn't know how to process that.
The episode starts with the auction money hunt, which in true Andy fashion, he gets no money. None. Not even one tube, and he blindly wanders through the jungle missing obvious ones. Sam, of course, takes this as an opportunity to dunk on him ("And Andy in last place, as usual!") However, there's a weak upside, because even though Andy can't bid on any food, he can't lose his vote. So, that's good, I guess. Everyone else gets food, and we cut to Andy's sad little face a few times.
But then...the fun begins. Back at camp, Rachel is doing risky things to get an idol, while Andy chats with Teeny and Sierra about how much he wants a sub. It's a tiny moment, but it cracks me up because it once again reinforces that idea of Rachel being all about strategy/advantages, while Andy is all about bonding with people/connections. If he does actually win the season, moments like that will age hilariously.
At the immunity challenge, Andy shocks everyone (and me) by giving Kyle a run for his money, and cranking up that bucket like an absolute beast. This isn't even important to my winner's analysis, it's just an awesome moment. Like, I was so torn between him and Kyle, I didn't even know who to root for. I love both of them.
After the challenge, Andy gets his famous, epic She's All That moment after Sierra asks Andy if he's still with her and he lies to her face that he is and that he's voting Gabe, adding that he has no idea what's going on and is glad she came to him. This is some impressive acting from Andy, considering that according to Sierra's exit press, this was when she had walked in on him, Genevieve and Teeny strategizing her own vote out! Give that man his Emmy. After this, Andy has a confessional that's just...so insanely good and self aware. I just need to quote it all.
Sam and Sierra still feel like they own me, they have me in their pockets. They look at me as an expendable piece, and as sort of a "weak player". [...] So for me, I feel like this is my "She's All That" makeover moment - I'm starting this game like "Aw, hi, I'm Andy, please like me, Sierra and Sam, you're the cool kids, can I sit at your lunch table?" And now I'm at the merge and I'm getting a lot cooler, I don't even need to wear these freakin' glasses anymore, and I can be the Andy that I believe myself to be; I can be my full version of myself, and I can turn into the pivotal player in the post-merge. [...] I can make my own lunch table. Sam, Sierra and Rachel, they're going to be shocked by the new Andy. They're not gonna see me coming. That was stupid! (laughs) I've been doing a lot behind their backs. [..] I wanna build an alliance with myself, Lavo and Tuku, and I think splitting up Sam and Sierra is of the utmost importance. They're gonna be like "Damn, Andy did that?! Our Andy?! Wait, no, he was gonna be our goat!"
During the montage, he's shown allying with Caroline, who seems down to work with him as well (although we'll see where it goes), connecting with Sol and telling him he's basically a Lavo, telling Gabe he's ready to change his fate, all the while inspirational music plays. I mean, do I need to say anything else in this analysis? Up until this point, Lavo was considering Gabe with Sierra and Sam, but after Andy's "He's All That" moment, the conversation shifts to Lavo AND Tuku debating which Gata to get, insinuating that it was Andy flipping that prompted the change in target.
Suffice to say, tribal rolls around, Rachel has her amazing Shot in the Dark moment that also makes her target even bigger, and Sam and Sierra are tied for votes, just how Andy wanted it to be. He can't resist evilly grinning as Sierra's final vote is read, and her torch is snuffed. One down, two to go in Andy's revenge tour!
Before we continue with analyzing his edit (because the rest of it hasn't happened yet), here are some other additional thoughts.
The Future of Andy's Game
Some are saying that Episode 8 could've been the end of Andy's arc since he got out Sierra. However, I disagree, as it feels more like it's just beginning than ending. He still has Sam and his unfinished arc with Rachel to deal with, as well as his new connections with Genevieve, Sol, Teeny and Caroline. It's only the Final 10, and he still has a long way to go.
Although, my biggest concern with Andy's winning chances is whether or not he'll be able to change the jury's mind should he get to Final Tribal Council. He clearly has a finalist's edit so he'll be there, the question is, can he pull it off? We've been shown plenty of times that Andy is an articulate speaker, and extremely smart underneath his "idiot" persona. His confessionals are always well spoken and well thought out, so it's possible he can sway the jury if he communicates to them the same way he communicates to us/the producers. It also seems like Andy is much more well-liked among his castmates than the edit has let us believe. Sierra said she had a much closer relationship with him than we were shown, and that he's very funny and fun to be around. Also look at the way Rachel smiles at him in the sneak peek:
He's clearly well-liked, the only issue is that a lot of the players don't see him as a competitor or a gamer. But is that such a bad thing this early in the game? If no one sees you as a threat, it makes it even easier for you to weasel your way to the end. If Andy can clearly articulate his strategy and the moves he made, like he does to the audience, along with being decently well liked, he stands a really good chance of winning.
Other Contenders
I've been seeing Edgic grow pretty convinced that the winner is Rachel, and while I agree she is a powerful strategist and a great player (and the winner is 99.9% likely to be from Gata), her lack of personal content (outside of that chat with Sol) is throwing me off. She's rather one-dimensional, and I'm struggling to see how she fits in with our three themes. She also doesn't have a lot of funny side moments, other than the rice moment production did their best to recreate. Other than that, she really doesn't have any funny side scenes. She had a scene of her celebrating Gata winning a hammock in pre-merge, but that was relegated to a deleted scene. She had the scene with all the fruits Sam didn't eat, which Rachel narrated, but that was more about him than it was about her. Also, the advantage-heavy focus of her edit is reminding me of Austin and Charlie, both of whom were very advantage focused and strategic but lacked personal content and an emotional storyline. They tried to shoe-horn some in toward the end (which I assume they'll do for Rachel as well), but it wasn't enough to be the winner.
"But she had a winner's quote!" Just mentioning the word "community" in your premiere confessional isn't enough when in the very next scene she's criticizing someone for trying to form bonds with people, and also refuses to help a tribemate in distress because of how it will make her look in the game. She said her tribe won as a community, but she hasn't done anything to live out that theme in her own game. The only social connection we're shown of her is her naming the Breadwinners alliance (which was great, very community oriented) and trying to steal rice for her tribe (also good). But now, in the post-merge, her only real allies are Sol and Sam, with everyone gunning for her as a threat. She has an idol, yes, but idols can only be used once. Where's she going to go from here?
I also can't get past how the edit juxtaposes Andy and Rachel with each other - Rachel's advantages and Andy's connections. The premiere had such a heavy focus on them, and Rachel's rejection of him because he was on the bottom. I'm so curious to see where it's going to go. If Rachel wins, then the storyline could be that her being the only one not allying with Andy was a good thing, and it saved her game. If Andy wins, the storyline is that Rachel's hyperfocus on the strategic game at the expense of social game was her downfall. AND THAT WAS THE VIBE OF THE WHOLE PREMIERE. Players making dumb social decisions for the sake of the game (e.g. Gabe's beware advantage shenanigans putting a target on his back). You could even argue that Caroline's "they decided to hang out, I decided to keep playing Survivor" could also be perceived negatively instead of positively. Not that playing the game is a bad thing, but it's a social game as well, as proven by Kenzie in 46, and even Dee in 45 to some extent, as much as I hate to admit it. Kenzie was kind to everyone and got up in the middle of the night to comfort Ben, which ended up winning her the game because the jury liked her so much. Dee's strategy was being everyone's best friend, so much so that people like Katurah liked her so much that they actively sabotaged their own game for her.
Andy's strategy is somewhat similar to theirs. Talk to people, bond with them, try to form a loyal alliance, but he also has the added strategy of using advantages/information as currency to barter trust with people, which is how he survived Gata. It worked so well that Sierra liked him and trusted him enough to tell him the name of her alliance. Which is insane, and ended up being a mistake because Andy tells Sam, and Sam then questions Sierra's loyalty. But it's impressive that Andy was able to get that information from her to begin with.
Temporary Conclusion
To summarize, the edit we've been given has been looking pretty good for Andy so far. He has personal AND strategic content, as well as a little bit of positive SPV from Genevieve, although it would be nice to see some more from other players. He gets clowned on by the edit, but it also makes sure to highlight his strategic mind and give him credit for moves. I'm just hoping he can stay low-key for long enough to get to the end and explain himself to the jury.
Additional Notes
- Andy has no cut personal content - except for the schoolyard pick from Episode 6 that featured a monologue from him about being last picked, but it also had a lot of things that he already talked about in the He's All That sequence, and according to Jeff, the scene was cut for time even though they really wanted to include it.
- His confessional time is sitting at a comfortable 12:51 as of Episode 8, only a few seconds above Sam. He's at the top of the leaderboard, but not by much and could easily drop back to second.
- He has never had a 0 confessional episode.
- He has no backstory package (yet) but has had enough personal content in the episodes to make up for it. I would expect his BP to come closer to the end of the season, perhaps in the penultimate episode.
- His win would follow the New Era pattern of 2 female winners, 2 male winners, and another 2 female winners.
- He would be the first Filipino male winner in Survivor history, and the second Filipino winner, alongside Erika.
- He would be the third Asian male to get to the Final 3 in the New Era, and finish what Owen (3rd) and Austin (2nd) started.
- He would be my first successful winner pick since I started watching live during 44. (I'm knocking on wood as I write this.)
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