Survivor 47 Episode 11 - Positives and Negatives of Remaining Players & Ranking Winner Contenders

I read online someone say that this episode could've been an e-mail, and honestly? I agree. Not the best episode of the season, but at least we got some much needed emotional content for some of the castaways, which I appreciated. The softie within me is always a sucker for an emotional reflection segment. 

But back to the analysis! Last week, as we all expected, Kyle went home, and no one is surprised. I had him at 7th out of 8 in terms of my winner contenders, so it was only a matter of time before Grim Reaper Jeff came to snuff his torch. This week, however, things are looking a little different going into Episode 12. 

As always, I'm looking at everyone's edits and listing out their positives and negatives, then ranking them based on who has the best case so far, as objectively as possible. 

#1. Andy (18:10) 

Positives 

• got a mat chat 
• is shown last in the opening credits with a beaming smile (like Dee in 45) 
• "i see this as a numbers game" confessional early on in premiere 
• gained strategic prominence at the merge 
• has told us his strategies and is shown doing them (pretending to be on the bottom/pathetic to lower threat level, pit people against each other) 
• has a web of allies and connections (the charming assassin) and is always being pulled into plans 
• plenty of emotional content/growth arc (transformation montage, Final 8 immunity monologue) 
• fits all the themes (finding a community, forging his own path away from Gata, being underestimated by everyone - "I'm sick of being underestimated") 
• has titled 5 episodes ("Feel the FOMO", "He's All That", "Nightmare Fuel", "Loyal to the Soil", "Flipping the Win Switch") 
• his NTOS run is insane (always gets a confessional) 
• high confessional time (19:14 mins) and has narrated a lot of key events 
• gets some positive SPV from Genevieve, Rachel and Sam all wanting to work with him in the early merge 
• flashback sequence clearly establishes him and Rachel as the complex duo of the season 
• wasn't clowned on in Episode 9 at all (challenge flub was glossed over) and only had one moment in Episode 10 (biting the ball) 
• is a part of the majority alliance 
• read Sue like a book and talked about who he wants to sit with at the end, also talked about winning the game
• got positive SPV from Teeny about finding safety in him and trusting him, saying it's a refreshing change from constantly being stabbed in the back (shows good social game on Andy's part) 
• kept his word to Kyle by not voting for him and showed good jury management 

Negatives 

• had a really, really bad Episode 1 that could've damaged his strategic credibility for the rest of the game
• was clowned on really heavily in the pre-merge (more so than any other New Era winner to date)
• negative SPV from all his Gata tribemates pre-merge  
• still a chance that he's being delusional about being in a power position 
• schoolyard pick monologue about being last picked was cut 
• no backstory package yet 
• could be getting overconfident too soon (downfall incoming?) 
• extremely overexposed to the point of absurdity (it's literally the Andy show ft. everyone else), approaching coronation edit levels of obvious 
• negative SPV from Genevieve saying he's being "shepherded to the Final 3" (although is Gen a reliable narrator?) 
• on the wrong side of the vote by voting Gen instead of Kyle (could this come back to bite him?) 

Possible Placement Prediction: 7th, 6th, 3rd, 1st 

#2. Rachel (16:7) 

Positives

• "we won as a community" quote 
• from the complex tribe (gata) 
• gained strategic visibility during the merge 
• gets a lot of advantages and is shown using them in smart ways, like the shot in the dark move which she then got to explain fully with flashbacks in the next episode 
• high confessional time (18:57 mins) and gets to narrate some big events 
• positive SPV of people telling us she's a threat 
• solid underdog story (fighting to survive) 
• flashback sequence clearly establishes her and Andy as the complex duo of the season
• crumbs of personal content (her chat with Sol about their families owning stores, talking about her husband's patience after winning immunity)
• production went out of their way to recreate rice moment because it told us something about her 
• "I want to be the ocean" quote was very winner-y 
• is part of the majority alliance 
• has an idol and a block a vote 
• has Sue's unwavering loyalty and Andy/Teeny trust her as well 
• showed decent jury management in the last two tribals (does the jury buy it?) 
• won individual immunity 

Negatives 

• late confessional in premiere 
• opening credit shot is super brief and she's looking away 
• not much emotional content (she's very flat and toneless) 
• struggles with social game (her bad lying to Genevieve) 
• was undermined by the edit when her "andy is my guy!" got directly contrasted with andy's confessional about being a lethal player, is portrayed to be obliviously walking into a dangerous situation (his web) 
• did not get her way with gabe and kyle going home
• didn't get an emotional confessional check-in at the beginning of Ep.11 when lots of the other major players had one 

Possible Placements: 4th, 2nd, 1st 

#3. Teeny (13:4) 

Positives 

• got a mat chat 
• got a lot of focus in the premiere 
• great intro shot 
• gets a lot of narrative content even when it doesn't directly involve them 
• gets lots of emotional content (we're shown how they feel a lot) 
• likeability is super high, great SPV - especially in pre-merge 
• still has a decent confessional time (16:03 mins) 
• GOT A BACKSTORY PACKAGE! 
• is portrayed as someone we should sympathize for but not pity/laugh at (edit takes them seriously) 
• is part of the majority alliance and is also tight with Rachel and Andy 
• was asked Jeff a question at tribal council about community - the theme of the season 
• great underdog arc forming, hits all the themes 
• got their way with Kyle going home and showed good assertiveness & loyalty 

Negatives 

• has lost everyone they've tried to work with (had to vote out their #1 ally) 
• weaker strategically (has had to acquiesce to the larger group a lot) 
• might not have the resume to garner votes at the end 
• fire imagery (e.g. burnt bag) could foreshadow a FMC loss

Possible Placements: 4th, 3rd, 2nd 

#4. Caroline (11:6) 

Positives 

• decent intro shot (tucking hair behind ears, facing forward) 
• a solid strategic mind (likes to be in control of the vote, made the smart move of telling everyone she didn't have a vote) 
• a big strategic threat but few people are clocking her right now
• good social skills and people seem to like her and want to work with her 
• "I decided to keep playing Survivor" quote 
• confessionals are few but very insightful 
• was the deciding vote in sending Gabe home 
• did really good damage control with Sue and regained her trust 
• knows about both Rachel's advantage and Sue's idol 
• is part of the majority alliance 
• got really good emotional content about her struggle with ADHD (but is it too little too late?) 

Negatives 

• introduced too late in the premiere
• really bad pre-merge content 
• not really hitting the themes (underestimation, community)
• still very low confessional time (7:41 mins)
• hasn't titled an episode
• was only given the bare minimum screentime when she was in a swing vote position 

Possible Placements: 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th, 2nd, 1st 

#5. Sue (10:6) 

Positives 

• "i'm 59 and i beat all your asses" quote
• victory pose in opening credits 
• narrative story of being underestimated by men
• some personal content (pilot) 
• jeff talked to her when she won immunity 
• emotional monologue at the Final 8 immunity challenge 
• strong relationships with Caroline and Rachel 
• has an idol (could do something cool with it) 
• is part of the majority underdog alliance 
• finally got her revenge on Kyle (could open up her story to go in an upward direction)

Negatives 

• backstory package was cut 
• had a 0 confessional episode POST-MERGE in an ep where it was a TUKU ONLY TRIBAL
• was clowned on HARD by the edit with that Kyle montage
• negative SPV from Andy & Genevieve talking about how she's easy to beat at the end 
• still quite silent in post-merge with low confessional time - 9:44 mins  
• could be seen as an immunity threat later

Possible Placements: 7th, 6th, 5th, 3rd 

#6. Genevieve (8:6) 

Positives 

• "breathe in" shot in the opening minutes 
• voice over confessional opens the premiere
• really good shot in opening credits (beaming smile) 
• decently good at strategy and swaying people's minds 
• a really good breakout episode with the Kishan vote 
• titled an episode ("Scales Be Tippin'") 
• decent confessional time (13:52 mins) and narrates a lot 
• lots of emotional content about her having to separate "Genevieve the player" from "Genevieve the person" 

Negatives 

• super invisible in the premiere 
• has a 0 confessional episode 
• no backstory package yet 
• not quite fitting the themes (except for forging her own path) 
• is on the bottom and everyone still sees her as a major threat
• lack of a social game could be a problem later on

Possible Placements: 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th, 1st 

#7. Sam (6:5) 

Positives 

• was introduced in the opening minutes of premiere with a backstory package 
• "wolf in wolf's clothing" 
• member of the complex tribe (gata) 
• great intro shot 
• lots of confessionals (18:23 mins) 
• jeff talked to him at tribal and related him directly to the community theme 

Negatives 

• made a hilariously bad move blowing up the Sol plan when Rachel trusted him with the info, she clearly doesn't trust him anymore 
• was pressured into giving up his shot in the dark (didn't look good for him) 
• didn't get his strategic way (his plan to get Sue failed) 
• hasn't titled an episode  
• is now on the bottom with very few options (and with Kyle gone, he's extra cooked unless he can figure something out or win immunity) 

Possible Placements: 7th, 6th, 5th, 2nd

Based on the edits thus far, I'm predicting either Sam, Genevieve, or Andy, with the off chance of Caroline or Sue will go home this week. Genevieve and Sam are the most obvious targets being on the outside of the Underdogs alliance and massive threats, however, Genevieve's fake idol play and the possibility of a Sam immunity win could complicate things. If the alliance of 5 were to turn on each other, I could see Andy being a safe consensus vote, especially since his edit could be setting him up for a downfall - perhaps if he's suspected to be flipping on the alliance. 

Sam and Gen being non-options could also result in a Tuku 2 boot, if Andy/Teeny/Rachel decide to stick together and break up Caroline/Sue (especially since there was a sneak peek highlighting their bond). 

It looks to be shaping up to be a chaotic week, and I can't wait to see what happens.