Survivor 47 Episode 12 - Positives and Negatives of Remaining Players & Ranking Winner Contenders

Uh...what just happened. 

First of all, phenomenal episode all around, one of the best of the new era. A true underdog moment, a ragtag team of 3 vs a stacked alliance of 4, and they somehow survived thanks to Andy's plan. And getting to see Andy finally get recognition and respect from the audience was...vindicating to say the least, considering how I clocked his mastermind potential from Episode 5, but I'm glad everyone else is seeing it now. :') 

Thanks to the collective efforts of Andy, Sam and Genevieve, Caroline was the one that went home last week, which was a bit of a shocker for me - I had her at 4th out of 8 in terms of viable edits, but I did predict correctly that there was an off chance she'd go home if something crazy happened. 

Now, going into the finale (or semifinal?), it's a lot harder to figure out where things are going to go for these guys, but I'll update my lists and see where things stand. 

#1. Andy (17:11) 

Positives 

• got a mat chat 
• is shown last in the opening credits with a beaming smile (like Dee in 45) 
• "i see this as a numbers game" confessional early on in premiere 
• gained strategic prominence at the merge 
• has told us his strategies and is shown doing them (pretending to be on the bottom/pathetic to lower threat level, pit people against each other) 
• has a web of allies and connections (the charming assassin) and is always being pulled into plans 
• plenty of emotional content/growth arc (transformation montage, Final 8 immunity monologue) 
• fits all the themes (finding a community, forging his own path away from Gata, being underestimated by everyone - "I'm sick of being underestimated") 
• has titled 6 episodes ("Feel the FOMO", "He's All That", "Nightmare Fuel", "Loyal to the Soil", "Flipping the Win Switch", "Operation: Italy") 
• his NTOS run is insane (always gets a confessional) 
• highest confessional time (22:01 mins) and has narrated every major event 
• gets some positive SPV from Genevieve, Rachel and Sam all wanting to work with him in the early merge 
• flashback sequence clearly establishes him and Rachel as the complex duo of the season 
• got positive SPV from Teeny about finding safety in him and trusting him, saying it's a refreshing change from constantly being stabbed in the back (shows good social game on Andy's part) 
• kept his word to Kyle by not voting for him and showed good jury management 
• made a massive move, orchestrated by him, that greatly increased his win equity 
• "andy did that, andy flipped again" from the jury (could they be recognizing him for his moves?)

Negatives 

• had a really, really bad Episode 1 that could've damaged his strategic credibility for the rest of the game
• was clowned on really heavily in the pre-merge (more so than any other New Era winner to date)
• negative SPV from all his Gata tribemates pre-merge  
• still a chance that he's being delusional about being in a power position 
• schoolyard pick monologue about being last picked was cut 
• no backstory package yet 
• could be getting overconfident too soon (downfall incoming?) 
• extremely overexposed to the point of absurdity (it's literally the Andy show ft. everyone else), approaching coronation edit levels of obvious 
• made a huge move that could increase his threat level (rachel could target him at F6 with her advantages)
• "andy did that, andy flipped again" from the jury (will they respect a flipper?) 
  
• now has teeny, sue and rachel all pissed at him (will they want revenge? can he do damage control?) 

Possible Placements: 6th, 2nd, 1st 

#2. Rachel (16:10)

Positives

• "we won as a community" quote 
• from the complex tribe (gata) 
• gained strategic visibility during the merge 
• gets a lot of advantages and is shown using them in smart ways, like the shot in the dark move which she then got to explain fully with flashbacks in the next episode 
• high confessional time (20:02 mins) and gets to narrate some big events 
• positive SPV of people telling us she's a threat 
• solid underdog story (fighting to survive) 
• flashback sequence clearly establishes her and Andy as the complex duo of the season
• crumbs of personal content (her chat with Sol about their families owning stores, talking about her husband's patience after winning immunity)
• production went out of their way to recreate rice moment because it told us something about her 
• "I want to be the ocean" quote was very winner-y 
• is part of the majority alliance 
• has an idol and a block a vote 
• has Sue's unwavering loyalty and Teeny trusts her as well 
• showed decent jury management in the last two tribals (does the jury buy it?) 
• won two individual immunities 

 Negatives 

• late confessional in premiere 
• opening credit shot is super brief and she's looking away 
• not much emotional content (she's very flat and toneless) 
• struggles with social game (her bad lying to Genevieve) 
• did not get her way with gabe, kyle or caroline going home
• didn't get an emotional confessional check-in at the beginning of Ep.11 when lots of the other major players had one 
• once again got screwed over by andy and is on the outs...again 
• everyone knows about her block a vote (could try and target her as a threat)
• Genevieve is already talking about how she can win the game...at Final 7 (is that too early for Rachel to come back from?) 

Possible Placements: 4th, 2nd, 1st 

#3. Genevieve (11:4) 

Positives 

• "breathe in" shot in the opening minutes 
• voice over confessional opens the premiere
• really good shot in opening credits (beaming smile) 
• decently good at strategy and swaying people's minds 
• a really good breakout episode with the Kishan vote 
• titled an episode ("Scales Be Tippin'") 
• decent confessional time (18:00 mins) and narrates a lot 
• lots of emotional content about her having to separate "Genevieve the player" from "Genevieve the person" 
• has a lot of funny moments in the edit that show personality (e.g. whispering "italian" during the challenge) 
• worked with Sam and Andy to make a major move against the majority alliance 
• talks a lot about community (theme of the season) at tribal very directly 

Negatives 

• super invisible in the premiere 
• has a 0 confessional episode 
• no backstory package yet 
• is on the bottom and everyone still sees her as a major threat

Possible Placements: 6th, 5th, 4th, 1st 

#4. Teeny (11:7)

Positives 

• got a mat chat 
• got a lot of focus in the premiere 
• great intro shot 
• gets a lot of narrative content even when it doesn't directly involve them 
• gets lots of emotional content (we're shown how they feel a lot) 
• likeability is super high, great SPV - especially in pre-merge 
• still has a decent confessional time (18:02 mins) 
• GOT A BACKSTORY PACKAGE! 
• is portrayed as someone we should sympathize for but not pity/laugh at
• was asked Jeff a question at tribal council about community - the theme of the season 
• got their way with Kyle going home and showed good assertiveness & loyalty 

Negatives 

• has lost everyone they've tried to work with (had to vote out their #1 ally) 
• weaker strategically (has had to acquiesce to the larger group a lot) 
• might not have the resume to garner votes at the end 
• fire imagery (e.g. burnt bag) could foreshadow a FMC loss
• refusing to see that Rachel could beat them in jury votes was a very bad strategic read
• the sam "tantrum" wasn't a good look and the edit had no problems dunking on them for it 
• is now on the outs (again) and doesn't trust anyone 

Possible Placements: 4th, 3rd, 2nd 

#5. Sue (8:7)

Positives 

• "i'm 59 and i beat all your asses" quote
• victory pose in opening credits 
• narrative story of being underestimated by men
• some personal content (pilot) 
• jeff talked to her when she won immunity 
• emotional monologue at the Final 8 immunity challenge 
• has an idol (could do something cool with it) 
• continues to get decent emotional content 

Negatives 

• backstory package was cut 
• had a 0 confessional episode POST-MERGE in an ep where it was a TUKU ONLY TRIBAL
• was clowned on HARD by the edit with that Kyle montage
• negative SPV from Andy & Genevieve talking about how she's easy to beat at the end 
• still quite silent in post-merge with low confessional time - 10:15 mins  
• could be seen as an immunity threat later
• continues to be clowned on by the edit every chance it gets 

Possible Placements: 5th, 4th, 3rd 

#6. Sam (8:5) 

Positives 

• was introduced in the opening minutes of premiere with a backstory package 
• "wolf in wolf's clothing" 
• member of the complex tribe (gata) 
• great intro shot 
• high confessional time (20:48 mins) 
• jeff talked to him at tribal and related him directly to the community theme 
• got some good emotional content during the letters from home segment 
• worked with Andy and Genevieve to make a major move against the majority alliance (great for his resume) 

Negatives 

• made a hilariously bad move blowing up the Sol plan when Rachel trusted him with the info, she clearly doesn't trust him anymore 
• didn't get his strategic way (his plan to get Sue failed) 
• was pressured into giving up his shot in the dark (didn't look good for him)   
• is now on the bottom with very few options (and with Kyle gone, he's extra cooked unless he can figure something out or win immunity) 
  
• is still a major threat and on the bottom (and Teeny wants him gone) 

Possible Placements: 6th, 5th, 2nd

My prediction for the Final 6 and 5 votes is that Andy and Sam will be the ones voted out, with Genevieve also a possibility for 5. Andy because his edit has gotten too huge to be anything other than a badly done decoy or a coronation edit (which has only been done a handful of times in Survivor history), and with his big move, he's going to be the number one target going into the next round, standing no chance against Rachel's advantages. Unless he somehow manages to survive, then Sam or Genevieve will be the ones to go.